Original 1984 Eby Study
Chapter 4. A.1. - Original 1984 Eby Study

During the fall cold season of 1981, George A. Eby, Donald R. Davis, and William W. Halcomb tested 660-mg zinc gluconate tablets used as throat lozenges containing 23 mg zinc (1.5 RDA) and no other zinc chelators or soluble ingredients. The Eby group found the zinc gluconate lozenges effective in shortening the average duration of natural common colds by 7 days in a double-blind clinical trial.(1) The two experimental groups in the study responded completely differently, and the effects of the lozenges were clear from the beginning. In the zinc-treated group 22 percent were well within 1 day, versus none in the placebo-treated group (P = 0.008, by exact binomial). The half-life (H) of zinc-treated colds was 2.7 days compared to 7.5 days for placebo-treated or untreated natural colds. This is to say, each 2.7 days, the number of patients remaining ill was reduced by one-half with zinc treatment; this result occurred at 7.5 days for placebo treatment. Average duration (H/ln 2) of zinc-treated colds was, therefore, 3.9 days, while placebo-treated colds averaged 10.8 days. On day 7, 86 percent of 37 zinc-treated patients were asymptomatic compared with only 46 percent of 28 placebo-treated patients (P = 0.0005). The entire article is presented here.

The only ingredients in the 660-mg tablets were 175 mg zinc gluconate (23 mg zinc), dicalcium phosphate, microcrystalline cellulose, sodium starch glycolate, magnesium stearate, and FD & C yellow number 5 and blue number 1 (aluminum lake) coloring. With exception of the lake colors, all ingredients were essentially nonsoluble and nonreactive with zinc gluconate. Stability constant computations revealed about 60 percent of zinc was present as Zn2+ ion at salivary pH 5 to 5.5, and 30 percent of zinc was present as Zn2+ ion at physiologic pH 7.4 (see Figure 1 in Chapter 1). Although lake colors probably chelated some zinc, the amount appears to have been insignificant. The exact quantities of each ingredient except zinc gluconate are unknown, but one could theorize that amounts used were calculated to result in a slow dissolution rate. Tablets required about 30 minutes to dissolve in the mouth.

Because lozenges were small, bland, hard tablets that dissolved slowly, lozenges stimulated production of very little (15 ml) intra-oral dissolution/expectorations of zinc-laden saliva. Salivary Zn2+ ion concentration was 7.4 mMol or less at pH 7.4. The pH of zinc-laden saliva was 5.5. The pH of similar concentrations of zinc gluconate in de-ionized water was 6.4. Lozenges produced moderately strong astringency in the mouth and considerable amounts of nonpalpable salivary protein precipitate. Lozenges were used every two hours while awake and totaled 9 doses/day. Lozenges had a ZIA value of 100.

No patient complained of bitterness. Placebo lozenges contained calcium lactate as placebo, but were otherwise identical to zinc gluconate lozenges in respect to ingredients, size, shape, color, odor, and texture. The primary taste in both zinc gluconate and placebo lozenges was of dicalcium phosphate. Both had a dry, chalky, medicinal flavor. Neither zinc gluconate lozenges nor placebo lozenges were perceived by the patients or investigators as having an objectionable, bitter taste typical of zinc gluconate prepared with soluble sweeteners such as sucrose or dextrose.

Neither the zinc gluconate tablets nor placebo tablets were designed for oral dissolution, and therefore no sweeteners or flavors were present.

Patients

All patients were recruited during the fall using local radio and television advertisements. People with early onset common colds were invited to join a clinical study intended to determine if zinc gluconate lozenges could shorten duration of common colds. All patients were both self diagnosed and diagnosed by the physician (William W. Halcomb, a general practice physician and allergist) to have uncomplicated common colds.

Persons presenting with an allergy were not admitted to this study. Likewise, pregnant women and persons on immunosuppressive drugs were not admitted. Persons with known serious health disorders were also excluded.

Informed consent was obtained in writing after explanation of the study. Patients filled out a printed health questionnaire and were instructed in the study protocol. Patients chose a randomly coded bottle containing either 75 zinc gluconate or 75 placebo lozenges in a double-blind manner.

The following treatment instructions are the exact instructions given in the original 1984 clinical trial, and these instructions should be followed in all future clinical trials.

Treatment Protocol

At the first office visit, patients were instructed to dissolve tablets slowly as lozenges. Loading dose was two tablets (46 mg zinc), taken one after another. The double-strength loading dose was considered important to rapid recovery from symptoms, and everyone was instructed to be certain the double dose was taken. Emphasis was placed upon slowly dissolving lozenges in a manner intended to maximize the amount of zinc that could be absorbed into mucosal membranes of the mouth and throat.

Adults and youths over 60 pounds were to dissolve one tablet every two hours while awake after the loading dose. Children under 60 pounds were to dissolve 1/2 tablet every two hours while awake. All were instructed to continue treatment every two hours while awake until 6 hours after the end of the last common cold symptom. All were instructed to avoid stress and include one or two treatments during the first day after cessation of symptoms as insurance against relapse.

Experience with many common colds using zinc gluconate lozenge treatment during the 4 years immediately preceding the study also showed results could be improved if certain other steps were followed. Patients were told results might be improved if patients (a) slept after the first treatment and after other treatments when possible, (b) used a lozenge at bedtime (especially important as lymph circulation stops during sleep holding Zn2+ ions in tissues overnight), (c) took lozenges after meals and liquids (not before or on an empty stomach to avoid nausea), (d) avoided mouthwashes or alcohol, (e) avoided aspirin, antihistamines, decongestants, or other cold remedies, and (g) avoided smoking.

Patients were instructed to eat soda crackers if nausea occurred. More recent research confirms these techniques to improve results, perhaps by helping to prevent removal of zinc from oral tissues as well as by preventing immunosuppression or complexation of Zn2+ ions by other drugs.

Each patient was given a "treatment response form" in which they were to record severity of ten common cold symptoms each day for 7 days at the same time of day as their initial office visit. Symptoms studied were headache, fever, muscle pain, sneezing, nasal drainage, nasal obstruction, sore throat, scratchy throat, cough, hoarseness, and other. Common cold symptoms were scored as being either severe (3 points), moderate (2 points), minor (1 point), or absent (0 points). Space was provided to record side effects and other comments about treatment.

Chi-square and t-test statistical tests were used except as noted. P values below 0.05 were considered significant.

Results of 146-Patient Study

Results of the study for those patients having been ill for only 3 days before enrollment have been published.(1) The paper was criticized on several counts. One criticism was only sixty-five patients out of 146 patients who enrolled were reported. This omission suggested bias, even though the main results for all reportable patients were mentioned in the report as: "After the 7-day experiment, 90 percent of the zinc-treated patients reported no cold symptoms, compared with only 49 percent of the placebo-treated patients (P << 0.0001)."

Table 1. Characteristics of 80 patients

____________________________________________________________________________

				    Zinc-treated	  Placebo-treated
___________________________________________________________________________	

Total patients				41			39
Male/female				20/21			22/17
Age range				11-63			14-67
Mean age + s.e.m.			34 + 2.0		37.5 + 2.3
Smokers					9			9
History of allergy			15			14
History of over 4 colds/year		7			8
Pretreatment use of zinc supplements	4			5
Pretreatment use of vitamin C 		13			17
Mean pre-enrollment duration
	of colds + s.e.m. (days)	2.2 + 0.2		2.6 + 0.3
Mean initial number of
	symptoms + s.e.m.		5.4 + 0.3		6.3 + 0.4
Mean initial total severity
	score points + s.e.m.		9.5 + 0.7		10.3 + 0.7
___________________________________________________________________________

The report was limited out of concern by the authors and journal editors for possible superimposed allergies and bacterial infections in colds of longer duration. Also, a main goal of the research was to study the effects of zinc gluconate lozenges on colds of short pre-treatment duration, not long duration. Short pre-treatment duration better assessed possible impact of Zn2+ ions on rhinoviruses which are believed to replicate immediately before onset of common cold symptoms and during the first day or two of symptoms. To encourage unbiased reporting of pre-treatment duration of common colds, all patients were accepted into the study regardless of how long their colds had lasted before initiation of treatment.

The second and main criticism was the possibility of unblinding because of oral side effects and taste differences between zinc and placebo. To answer unblinding criticisms, subgroups of zinc-treated patients offering comments or complaints about taste, aftertaste, and oral side effects were compared with those not offering complaints. There were no differences in response to zinc treatment between the two subgroups. Taste problems associated with zinc gluconate in sucrose, dextrose, and sugar-alcohols are absent from zinc gluconate tablets having no other soluble ingredients.

Of 146 volunteers originally enrolled in the study, colds had lasted 10 days or less in 83 of the zinc-treated patients, and in 63 of the placebo-treated patients. Of these, 108 returned response reports (64 zinc, 44 placebo) of which 80 contained sufficient data for full analysis (41 zinc, 39 placebo). Characteristics of these 80 patients are shown in Table 1 along with information about their colds. Analysis of these characteristics and a number of others indicated randomization procedure to have been successful in producing similar groups. Three measures of degree of illness indicated the placebo group to have had slightly more intense colds than the zinc group. One of these measures approached statistical significance (initial number of symptoms reported, t = 1.8, two-tailed P = 0.08), but this difference does not appear to have affected results.

Duration of Cold Symptoms

Table 2 shows numbers of patients who reported various common cold symptoms at different times. Each of the most common symptoms (nasal drainage, nasal obstruction, sore throat, scratchy throat and headache) was initially reported by 60 to 80 percent of patients, while the least common symptom (fever) was initially reported by about 30 percent of the patients. These observations are generally comparable to results of Gwaltney(2) for rhinovirus colds. Table 2 also contains our central findings on patients who reported presence of any one or more of 10 common cold symptoms at various times.

Table 2. Numbers of patients reporting common cold symptoms at various times.

______________________________________________________________________

Symptom      Treatment  Hour Hour Hour Day  Day	Day  Day  Day  Day  Day
	       Group	 0    6	   12   1    2	 3    4	   5	6    7
______________________________________________________________________

Headache     Zinc	 27   17   12    9   5	 4    0	   0    1    1
Headache     Placebo	 23   19   17   13   7	 6    5	   3	3    5

Fever	     Zinc     	 13   11    8    7   5	 2    0	   0	1    0
Fever	     Placebo     12   10   10    8   6	 5    5	   4	2    3

Muscle pain  Zinc        20   16   13   10   5	 3    0	   0	0    1
Muscle pain  Placebo     17   15   14   12   8	 5    5    5	4    4

Sneezing     Zinc        21   14   12    9   7	 6    2	   0	2    1
Sneezing     Placebo     27   20   19   17  13	 9    8	   7	7    7

Nasal 
  drainage   Zinc        31   26   24   23  20	17    8	   4	4    4
Nasal 
  drainage   Placebo     32   30   32   32  28	25   23	  20   19   15

Nasal obstr-
  uction     Zinc        24   23   20   18  16	11    6	   3	3    3
Nasal obstr-
  uction     Placebo     32   30   29   30  27	22   17	  16   15   11

Sore throat  Zinc        27   22   17   15   9	 5    1	   1    0    0
Sore throat  Placebo     23   21   19   16  13	10    7	   6	5    4

Scratchy 
  throat     Zinc        22   17   12   13   9	 5    1	   2	0    0
Scratchy
  throat     Placebo     29   27   26   25  18	14   14	  11   11   10

Cough	     Zinc        18   16   l3   12  10	 9    5	   4	4    3
Cough	     Placebo     24   23   23   22  20	16   16	  11   11   11

Hoarseness   Zinc        19   15   13   15   9	 6    1	   1	1    1
Hoarseness   Placebo     25   20   18   20  14 	 9   10	   6    5    5
______________________________________________________________________

Any symptom   Zinc       41   37   35   31  24	18   10    8	5    4
Any symptom   Placebo    39   39   39   39  37	32   29	  27   26   20
______________________________________________________________________

Duration of common colds was defined as presence of any one or more of these ten symptoms. Presence of any one or more common cold symptom is the main result of the study, and is also shown in Figure 3.

The two experimental groups clearly responded differently, and the effects of zinc were apparent from the beginning. In the zinc group, sizable numbers of patients became completely asymptomatic rather quickly -- 15 percent within 12 hours and 25 percent by 24 hours -- whereas no placebo-treated patient was symptom-free within 24 hours (P < 0.02 at 12 hours, P < 0.001 at 24 hours, by exact binomial calculations).

The plot for the zinc group is roughly an exponential decay with a half-life of about 2.2 days; this is to say, half of the remaining symptomatic patients became symptom free about every 2.2 days. In contrast, half of the placebo group required 7 days to become asymptomatic, in agreement with generally accepted durations for common colds. In our zinc-treated population, 90 percent were asymptomatic by day 7 compared with 51 percent of the placebo-treated population (P << 0.0001).

The experiment was too short to measure fully average duration of cold symptoms, especially in the placebo group. Even if all symptoms remaining on day 7 had ended by day 8 for both groups (extremely unlikely), the effect of zinc lozenges on average duration would have been statistically highly significant (average duration would be 3.0 days in the zinc group and 5.9 days in the placebo group, P<< 0.0001). Improved estimates of average duration of these colds can, in this case, be based on average duration for an exponential decay curve (half-life/ln 2) and on half-lives. This method of extrapolation leads to average durations of 3.2 days and 10 days and to an estimated 7-day reduction in the average duration attributable to zinc gluconate lozenges.

Examination of the ten individual symptoms reported in Table 2 shows each to have cleared more rapidly in the zinc group than in the placebo group. In some cases these differences are independently statistically significant after just 1 day (P<0.05 by exact binomial calculation for nasal drainage, and cough). Most persistent symptoms (nasal drainage, nasal obstruction, and cough) had half-lives of about 5 to 7 days in the placebo group, but only about 3 days in the zinc group. All other symptoms, including several pain-related symptoms (muscle pain, sore throat,scratchy throat, fever, headache), sneezing, and hoarseness seemed to disappear completely by the fourth day in nearly all zinc-treated patients. In placebo-treated patients, these symptoms did not improve after the third day during the week of the study. Only two patients reported recurrence of any symptoms after becoming symptom free. Both were in the zinc group. In one patient one mild symptom recurred 1 day after stopping treatment, but it disappeared again after 5 more lozenges. This patient confessed he had taken only about half of the recommended dosage throughout the experiment. The other patient was asymptomatic on day 2 but had a full-blown cold with six symptoms on day 3. She resumed treatment and was asymptomatic again by day 4 and thereafter. Although provision for listing other symptoms was made, only one person (in the zinc group) indicated another symptom: acute sinusitis which cleared in 3 days.

Figure showing rapid decline in number of persons with colds given zinc compared to people given placebo

Figure 3. Duration of common colds in ZIA 100 zinc gluconate- and placebo-treated groups.

The possible effect on results of the difference between the two groups in their initial number of symptoms was evaluated. Several methods showed there was no appreciable effect. There was essentially no correlation between initial symptoms and duration of colds in either group (r = 0.1 zinc, -0.1 placebo). Likewise an analysis of covariance showed negligible interaction of these variables. As a final test, the effect of temporarily excluding from analysis 20 percent of placebo patients having the most initial symptoms and 20 percent of the zinc patients with fewest initial symptoms (thereby more than removing initial difference between groups) was calculated. There was still no change in half-lives and statistical trends previously given.

Rates of recovery in various subgroups of patients were studied. The data suggest zinc may have benefited women more than men, perhaps because of size and weight differences or differences in oral mucosal membrane thicknesses, and non-smokers more than smokers (by 1-2 days average duration, P = 0.05 to 0.2 at several different times). Data similarly suggested in both the zinc- and placebo-treated groups younger patients recovered more quickly than older patients (by 2-3 days average duration), and patients who reported taking vitamin C supplements before the study recovered more quickly than those who did not (by 1 day average duration). These possible relationships are uncertain and require further study. No other characteristic was found to impact recovery in subgroups, including the presence or absence of complaints about taste or side effects.

Diligent efforts to detect differences in responses to treatment between zinc-treated patients who recorded a complaint about oral side effects and zinc-treated patients who did not were performed. Plots of duration of cold data for both subgroups were identical, strongly suggesting taste was not a factor in responses of zinc-treated patients.

In preliminary field trials in numerous participants before the formal clinical study, we frequently observed that when zinc treatment was started within 2 hours of onset of cold symptoms, the apparent colds usually would be aborted within 1 to 4 hours.

The present study could not adequately test this observation because only two zinc-treated patients' colds had lasted 6 hours or less before enrollment. Although one patient became asymptomatic within 6 hours, the other patient's cold lasted 5 days.

Severity of Cold Symptoms

Table 3 shows average severity scores at various times for each of the 10 symptoms studied. For all symptoms, severity scores fell considerably faster in the zinc group than in the placebo group. Table 3 also shows average severity scores for all symptoms combined, and these are presented in Figure 4. Most persistent symptoms (nasal drainage, nasal obstruction and cough) were reduced in severity in the zinc group by about 30 to 40 percent during the first day, by about 60 percent by the fourth day, and by about 66 to 83 percent by the seventh day. All other symptoms, including pain-related symptoms (muscle pain, sore throat, scratchy throat, fever, and headache), sneezing, and hoarseness appeared to disappear completely by the fourth day in nearly all zinc-treated patients. In the placebo-treated patients, no symptom improved significantly after the fourth day. Severity of zinc-treated colds was one-half of placebo-treated colds on day 2.5. Severity of colds in the zinc-treated group was less than 12 percent of the severity of common colds in the placebo-treated group on the seventh day.

Table 3. Average severity of 10 common cold symptoms at various times*

____________________________________________________________________________

Symptom  Treated   Hour  Hour Hour  Day   Day   Day   Day   Day   Day   Day
	Group  N     0     6   12    1     2     3     4     5     6     7    
____________________________________________________________________________

Headache    Z  27 1.70  0.93  0.59  0.41  0.26  0.19  0.00  0.00  0.04  0.04
Headache    P  23 1.48  1.22  1.09  1.00  0.48  0.39  0.35  0.26  0.26  0.39

Fever	    Z  13 1.46  1.23  0.92  0.77  0.46	0.15  0.00  0.00  0.08	0.00
Fever	    P  12 1.42  1.17  1.17  0.92  0.67	0.58  0.58  0.50  0.33	0.42

Muscle pain Z  20 1.65  1.35  0.90  0.60  0.30	0.20  0.00  0.00  0.00	0.05
Muscle pain P  17 1.41  1.18  1.18  0.94  0.65	0.47  0.47  0.47  0.41	0.41

Sneezing    Z  21 1.43  0.90  0.67  0.62  0.48	0.43  0.14  0.00  0.14	0.05
Sneezing    P  27 1.52  1.07  1.00  1.04  0.81	0.59  0.56  0.52  0.56	0.56

Nasal 
  drainage  Z  31 1.87  1.23  1.10  1.10  0.97	0.77  0.45  0.23  0.23	0.16
Nasal 
  drainage  P  32 1.94  1.56  1.59  1.66  1.47	1.28  1.13  1.00  0.97	0.84

Nasal 
  obstruct  Z  24 1.83  1.50  1.29  1.13  0.92	0.67  0.38  0.25  0.25	0.17
Nasal 
  obstruct  P  32 1.84  1.53  1.59  1.66  l.44	1.09  0.91  0.91  0.88	0.75

Sore throat Z  27 1.78  1.33  1.11  0.89  0.56	0.30  0.07  0.04  0.00	0.00
Sore throat P  23 1.70  1.30  1.22  l.22  0.91	0.61  0.43  0.39  0.30	0.26

Scratchy 
  throat    Z  22 1.73  1.27  0.86  0.91  0.68	0.36  0.09  0.14  0.00	0.00
Scratchy 
  throat    P  29 1.66  1.24  1.28  1.21  0.90	0.69  0.69  0.62  0.59	0.52

Cough       Z  18 2.06  1.39  1.11  0.94  0.83	0.61  0.39  0.28  0.28	0.22
Cough	    P  24 1.75  1.46  1.54  1.38  1.29	1.08  1.00  0.75  0.75	0.71

Hoarseness  Z  19 1.84  1.16  0.89  0.95  0.58	0.37  0.05  0.05  0.05	0.05
Hoarseness  P  25 1.40  1.16  1.04  1.04  0.68	0.56  0.52  0.44, 0.44	0.44
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

All symp.   Z 41  9.46  6.63  5.15  4.54  3.34	2.29  0.93  0.56  0.59	0.41
All symp.   P 39 10.33  8.21  8.10  7.85  6.21	4.90  4.39  3.95  3.69	3.51
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

*Group sums of severity scores in points divided by number of patients N having symptom at start of treatment (severe = 3 points, moderate = 2 points, minor = 1 point, absent = 0 points).

An initial abrupt decrease in reported severity occurred in both groups at hour 1 (not shown), perhaps partly because of changed circumstances and expectations following enrollment in the study. Then the two groups diverge convincingly at 12 hours and thereafter (P<0.01 to 0.001 through day 7). Whereas the zinc group recorded a 50 percent drop in severity scores in less than 1 day, the placebo group required 3 days for the same reduction. In the zinc group, total severity scores continued to fall rapidly and nearly exponentially from hour 6 through day 7, with a half-life of 1.5 days, compared to a half-life of 5 days in the placebo group after hour 6.

Severity in zinc-treated colds diverged from severity of placebo-treated colds in the first day of treatment (Figure 4). They dropped to about 60 percent of placebo by day 1, and remained at about 20 percent of the severity of placebo-treated colds from day 4 through day 7. Standard error of mean (s.e.m.) did not exceed one point for placebo-treated colds at any time. The s.e.m. did not exceed one point for zinc-treated colds during the first 3 days and did not exceed one-half point from day 4 through day 7. In vitro, zinc has effects on prostaglandin metabolism.(3) Those effects may attribute to a feeling of well being and reduction in pain-related symptoms (muscle pain, sore throat, scratchy throat, fever, and headache) in common cold treatment.

Side Effects and Complaints

Space was provided on the response form to report side effects and other comments. Patients were told nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea were possible side effects. Large doses of zinc (350 mg zinc) have been used as an emetic. Table 4 shows all reported complaints, including reports from patients who dropped out. About 38 percent more of the zinc group than the placebo group reported some objection to treatment, primarily unpalatable taste, irritation of mouth tissues, and distortion of sense of taste. Nausea in a few patients was probably attributable to zinc, but this is not established by the present data (P = 0.3). Most of the complaints were mild and considered an acceptable part of treatment.

Figure showing rapid decline in severity of colds of persons given zinc compared to people given placebo

Figure 4. Average total severity of colds in ZIA 100 zinc gluconate and placebo-treated groups.

On the other hand, most of the dropouts from the zinc group resulted from oral side effects including tablet grittiness. Reaction to zinc gluconate tablets was quite varied. A few patients had strong reactions to their taste while the majority of patients had no comment, accepting the bland, chalky taste as a reasonable and acceptable part of treatment. Some oral side effects are now primarily attributed to the nonsoluble formulation of lozenges. Unpalatable taste was a result of zinc gluconate and dicalcium phosphate. Irritation of mouth, tongue, and throat may also be caused by abrasive non-soluble tablet excipients. Three-fourths of all complaints were from women. Most side effects were accepted as a normal part of therapy by patients, and were considered a trade-off for a quick recovery. A complete listing of side effects and complaints is found in Table 4.

Table 4. Side effects and complaints

_________________________________________________________________________

			          Zinc-treated        Placebo-treated
_________________________________________________________________________

Total number of patients 
(includes dropouts)		    61 (100%)	         44 (100%)

Number of patients reporting
side effects and/or complaints	    33 (54%)	          7 (16%)

Frequency of side effects 
and/or complaints:

Unpalatable taste		    10 (16%)	          2 (5%)
Irritation of mouth, tongue 
or throat			     9 (15%)	          1 (2%)
Nausea or stomach distress	     9 (15%)	          4 (9%)
Distortion of sense of taste         7 (11%)	          1 (2%)
Transient mouth sores		     3 (5%)		  1 (2%)
Vomiting			     2 (3%)		  0 (0%)
Diarrhea			     1 (2%)		  1 (2%)
________________________________________________________________________

Beneficial side effects reported by several patients and later verified with clinical and field experience(4) includes elimination or prevention of dysmenorrhea and bloating, and elimination and prevention of angina pectoris. Cramping and bloating were controlled in over 90 percent of women using 30-mg zinc doses 1 to 3 times per day as needed with meals several days each month. Women often commented they thought they would miss their period. Elimination of symptoms may reflect the strong effect of Zn2+ ions on prostaglandin metabolites in the uterus.(3) Complete control of angina pectoris with 60-mg zinc tablets 3 times a day occurs in one-half of patients in clinical practice,(4) which is in agreement with long-term zinc, lead, and cadmium environmental pollution studies reported in Poland involving thousands of people with angina and ischemia of effort (P < 0.001).(5) Coronary risk factors suggested by Chandra with much larger (300 mg zinc/day) doses(6) appear reversed at these lower doses (see Chapter 8).

Drop-outs and Their Significance

Among 64 patients in the zinc-treated group who returned response reports, 20 (31 percent) are considered dropouts because they stopped treatment and/or stopped recording symptoms before cessation of symptoms. Three other reports were rejected because of lack of usable data or because notation by patients that lozenges were swallowed rather than dissolved. Most zinc drop-outs (14 patients) occurred within 24 hours of starting treatment; 13 resulted from objections to treatment, 8 from side effects, and 5 from taste. Three blamed lack of benefit. At the time of dropping out, 13 zinc-treated patients had improved, two were worse, and five were unchanged or change was unknown based on severity scores.

Drop-outs in the placebo group were rather different. Among 44 reports from placebo-treated patients, 15 (34 percent) dropped out (10 prematurely stopped treatment and five stopped recording symptoms). Seven stopped within 24 hours of starting treatment, and only one noted objection to the treatment as reason. Ten placebo-treated patients blamed lack of benefit. At the time of stopping, three placebo-treated patients' severity scores were improved, six were worse, and six were unchanged. Ten patients who stopped treatment but who recorded adequate symptom data were included in the placebo group analysis, because their stopping placebo "treatment" could not benefit their colds and because their omission might distort sampling of the group.

The significant number of patients who dropped out makes uncertain how precisely results represent the entire population, but these drop-outs do not affect the fundamental finding. Assuming all drop-outs would have received no benefit (i.e., as placebo patients), there still would have been a significant benefit after 7 days: of zinc-treated patients, 16 of 64 asymptomatic versus placebo-treated patients 23 of 44 asymptomatic (P < 0.005). A similar, additional consideration of those patients who did not return reports still demonstrates a significant benefit of zinc lozenge treatment over placebo (P < 0.02). Only if we assume all zinc-treated drop-outs remained ill through day 7 (a horizontal response line), and placebo drop-outs healed at the same rate as other placebo recipients (half life = 7.5 days) do the differences become significant. In this extremely unrealistic case for an acute, self-limiting illness, 16 of 48 (33.3 percent) zinc recipients would still be ill as compared with 17 of 33 (51.5 percent) placebo recipients. (Chi square = 2.68, P > 0.10.)

Zinc Ion Availability

The tablets required about 20 minutes to dissolve in flowing water bath tests and about 30 minutes to dissolve in the mouth. This difference results from the differences in dynamics between the two methods. For example, patients often pigeon-hole lozenges in their cheeks with little dissolution occurring. Because lozenges were small, bland, hard tablets that dissolved slowly, little zinc-laden saliva was generated (15 ml) resulting in a high Zn2+ ion molar concentration (7.4 mMol) which was 74 times antirhinoviral concentration according to Korant and co-workers(7) and 148 times antirhinoviral concentration according to Merluzzi and co-workers(8) and Geist and co-workers.(9)

Tablets had a ZIA value of 100 and reduced the average duration of all common cold symptoms by 7 days. ZIA 100 lozenges may produce antirhinoviral effects, judging from the very rapid initial response from these lozenges not seen in any study with lower ZIA values.

Chapter 4.A.2. Great Britain Medical Research Council Common Cold Unit 1987 Study